This is a recurring question when discussing ecological modeling: Can we trust digital tools to realistically represent the processes at work in nature?
In other words, are these methods (and the results they produce) reliable enough to inform decisions that support biodiversity?
To help answer this, we recommend reading a recently published article by a team of North American researchers in the journal Ecology and Evolution (link at the end of this post).
The article provides an overview of the progress made over the past decade and the scientific challenges that remain in modeling ecological connectivity.
Ecological connectivity, in simple terms, is the ability of species to move across the landscapes they inhabit, for example, to find food, ensure genetic mixing, or migrate between habitats.
Over the last ten years, scientific advances have significantly improved techniques for modeling ecological connectivity, making them much more realistic.
The article focuses on four key aspects:
- incorporating biological realities, such as species’ movement behaviors, demographic parameters, landscape complexity, and interspecies interactions
- taking into account certain factors likely to influence the direction of species movements (e.g. currents in aquatic environments)
- consideration of climate change, its role in the dynamic transformation of landscapes and its influence on the movement of species
- the relevance, depending on the case, of modeling connectivity for a single species or for several species
Are there still gaps to address? Yes, say the authors, who outline a list of research priorities and needs.
In some situations, they acknowledge that these gaps shouldn’t hinder action. The urgency of protecting biodiversity may justify relying on relatively simple data and modeling tools.
However, when feasible, more advanced models and methods should be preferred. These tools generally provide the necessary realism to guide decisions aimed not only at slowing biodiversity loss but also at reversing it.
Read the article here https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.70231
Image Credit : CC BY 4.0; Amanda R. Liczner et AL; Advances and challenges in ecological connectivity science; 01 September 2024